Analysing your IQ
Please Wait
AKA: "Monte Carlo Fallacy"
The mistaken belief that past random events affect the probability of future random events.
Your brain has bugs. Gambler's Fallacy is one of them. Understanding this error pattern helps you catch it before it costs you.
After five heads in a row, you think tails is "due." The coin doesn't have memory.
This bias is particularly dangerous because it operates below conscious awareness. By the time you notice it, the damage is often done.
This error is driven by Pattern-seeking brains expect balance even where none exists; randomness feels wrong..
This bias exists because human brains evolved for survival, not accuracy. Pattern-seeking brains expect balance even where none exists; randomness feels wrong. served our ancestors well. In modern contexts, it often misfires.
In investing: Gambler's Fallacy leads to holding losing positions too long or selling winners too early.
In relationships: This bias causes people to interpret ambiguous signals in ways that confirm existing beliefs about partners.
In work: Gambler's Fallacy makes it harder to update strategies when market conditions change.
In health: People ignore symptoms that contradict their self-image as "healthy" or "young."
Gambler's Fallacy has been studied extensively since the cognitive revolution. Research consistently shows that even warned subjects fall for it—awareness alone doesn't provide immunity.
Treat each random event as independent. Past outcomes don't change future probabilities in truly random systems.
Seek disconfirming evidence: Actively look for data that challenges your current belief.
Use decision journals: Write down predictions before outcomes are known, then review accuracy.
Consult diverse perspectives: People with different backgrounds spot different biases.
Implement decision rules: Pre-commit to criteria before emotionally charged situations arise.
Time-box decisions: Revisit important conclusions after a cooling-off period.
Some brains are more susceptible to this than others. Test your Intelligence to find out.
The mistaken belief that past random events affect the probability of future random events.
The alternate name "Monte Carlo Fallacy" captures the intuitive essence of the bias. Gambler's Fallacy is the formal psychological term, while "Monte Carlo Fallacy" describes what it feels like in practice.
Treat each random event as independent. Past outcomes don't change future probabilities in truly random systems.
The underlying mechanism is pattern-seeking brains expect balance even where none exists; randomness feels wrong.. Human brains evolved heuristics for speed and survival, not accuracy in modern contexts.
Yes. Intelligence doesn't provide immunity—sometimes it makes the bias worse because smart people are better at rationalizing. Awareness and structured decision processes are more protective than raw IQ.
After five heads in a row, you think tails is "due." The coin doesn't have memory.