Analysing your IQ
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AKA: "Elimination Preference"
Preferring to eliminate a small risk entirely rather than achieving a greater overall risk reduction.
Your brain has bugs. Zero-Risk Bias is one of them. Understanding this error pattern helps you catch it before it costs you.
You'd rather reduce risk from 2% to 0% than from 10% to 4%, even though the second saves more lives.
This bias is particularly dangerous because it operates below conscious awareness. By the time you notice it, the damage is often done.
This error is driven by Zero is psychologically special; certainty feels fundamentally different from 1% uncertainty..
The mechanism is rooted in zero is psychologically special; certainty feels fundamentally different from 1% uncertainty.. Your brain isn't broken—it's running outdated software in a new environment.
In investing: Zero-Risk Bias leads to holding losing positions too long or selling winners too early.
In relationships: This bias causes people to interpret ambiguous signals in ways that confirm existing beliefs about partners.
In work: Zero-Risk Bias makes it harder to update strategies when market conditions change.
In health: People ignore symptoms that contradict their self-image as "healthy" or "young."
Zero-Risk Bias has been studied extensively since the cognitive revolution. Research consistently shows that even warned subjects fall for it—awareness alone doesn't provide immunity.
Compare expected value, not the appeal of "zero." A larger absolute risk reduction is better even if not complete.
Seek disconfirming evidence: Actively look for data that challenges your current belief.
Use decision journals: Write down predictions before outcomes are known, then review accuracy.
Consult diverse perspectives: People with different backgrounds spot different biases.
Implement decision rules: Pre-commit to criteria before emotionally charged situations arise.
Time-box decisions: Revisit important conclusions after a cooling-off period.
Some brains are more susceptible to this than others. Test your Intelligence to find out.
Preferring to eliminate a small risk entirely rather than achieving a greater overall risk reduction.
The alternate name "Elimination Preference" captures the intuitive essence of the bias. Zero-Risk Bias is the formal psychological term, while "Elimination Preference" describes what it feels like in practice.
Compare expected value, not the appeal of "zero." A larger absolute risk reduction is better even if not complete.
The underlying mechanism is zero is psychologically special; certainty feels fundamentally different from 1% uncertainty.. Human brains evolved heuristics for speed and survival, not accuracy in modern contexts.
Yes. Intelligence doesn't provide immunity—sometimes it makes the bias worse because smart people are better at rationalizing. Awareness and structured decision processes are more protective than raw IQ.
You'd rather reduce risk from 2% to 0% than from 10% to 4%, even though the second saves more lives.