Analysing your IQ
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AKA: "Future Self Blindness"
Assuming your future preferences and feelings will match your current ones.
Projection Bias affects everyone, including (especially) people who think they're immune. The first step to fixing it is understanding how it works.
You shop hungry and buy too much food. You make vacation plans based on current mood, not actual preferences.
This bias is particularly dangerous because it operates below conscious awareness. By the time you notice it, the damage is often done.
This error is driven by The current state is vivid and accessible; future states are abstract and hard to simulate..
Evolution optimized for speed and safety, not truth. Projection Bias is a byproduct of heuristics that once had adaptive value.
In investing: Projection Bias leads to holding losing positions too long or selling winners too early.
In relationships: This bias causes people to interpret ambiguous signals in ways that confirm existing beliefs about partners.
In work: Projection Bias makes it harder to update strategies when market conditions change.
In health: People ignore symptoms that contradict their self-image as "healthy" or "young."
Projection Bias has been studied extensively since the cognitive revolution. Research consistently shows that even warned subjects fall for it—awareness alone doesn't provide immunity.
Make important decisions in "cold" states. Ask: "How will I feel about this in a week, a month, a year?"
Seek disconfirming evidence: Actively look for data that challenges your current belief.
Use decision journals: Write down predictions before outcomes are known, then review accuracy.
Consult diverse perspectives: People with different backgrounds spot different biases.
Implement decision rules: Pre-commit to criteria before emotionally charged situations arise.
Time-box decisions: Revisit important conclusions after a cooling-off period.
Some brains are more susceptible to this than others. Test your Emotional Health to find out.
Assuming your future preferences and feelings will match your current ones.
The alternate name "Future Self Blindness" captures the intuitive essence of the bias. Projection Bias is the formal psychological term, while "Future Self Blindness" describes what it feels like in practice.
Make important decisions in "cold" states. Ask: "How will I feel about this in a week, a month, a year?"
The underlying mechanism is the current state is vivid and accessible; future states are abstract and hard to simulate.. Human brains evolved heuristics for speed and survival, not accuracy in modern contexts.
Yes. Intelligence doesn't provide immunity—sometimes it makes the bias worse because smart people are better at rationalizing. Awareness and structured decision processes are more protective than raw IQ.
You shop hungry and buy too much food. You make vacation plans based on current mood, not actual preferences.