Analysing your IQ
Please Wait
AKA: "Dice-Blowing Fallacy"
The belief that you can influence outcomes that are actually determined by chance.
Illusion of Control affects everyone, including (especially) people who think they're immune. The first step to fixing it is understanding how it works.
You develop "lucky" rituals for gambling. You think your involvement improves random outcomes.
Illusion of Control isn't just an abstract concept—it affects real decisions about money, relationships, career, and health. The cost of ignoring it compounds over time.
This error is driven by Agency detection is hypersensitive; the brain sees causation where there is only correlation or randomness..
The mechanism is rooted in agency detection is hypersensitive; the brain sees causation where there is only correlation or randomness.. Your brain isn't broken—it's running outdated software in a new environment.
In investing: Illusion of Control leads to holding losing positions too long or selling winners too early.
In relationships: This bias causes people to interpret ambiguous signals in ways that confirm existing beliefs about partners.
In work: Illusion of Control makes it harder to update strategies when market conditions change.
In health: People ignore symptoms that contradict their self-image as "healthy" or "young."
Illusion of Control has been studied extensively since the cognitive revolution. Research consistently shows that even warned subjects fall for it—awareness alone doesn't provide immunity.
Distinguish skill games from chance games. Ask: "Can practice improve my results?" If not, it's luck.
Seek disconfirming evidence: Actively look for data that challenges your current belief.
Use decision journals: Write down predictions before outcomes are known, then review accuracy.
Consult diverse perspectives: People with different backgrounds spot different biases.
Implement decision rules: Pre-commit to criteria before emotionally charged situations arise.
Time-box decisions: Revisit important conclusions after a cooling-off period.
Some brains are more susceptible to this than others. Test your Intelligence to find out.
The belief that you can influence outcomes that are actually determined by chance.
The alternate name "Dice-Blowing Fallacy" captures the intuitive essence of the bias. Illusion of Control is the formal psychological term, while "Dice-Blowing Fallacy" describes what it feels like in practice.
Distinguish skill games from chance games. Ask: "Can practice improve my results?" If not, it's luck.
The underlying mechanism is agency detection is hypersensitive; the brain sees causation where there is only correlation or randomness.. Human brains evolved heuristics for speed and survival, not accuracy in modern contexts.
Yes. Intelligence doesn't provide immunity—sometimes it makes the bias worse because smart people are better at rationalizing. Awareness and structured decision processes are more protective than raw IQ.
You develop "lucky" rituals for gambling. You think your involvement improves random outcomes.