Analysing your IQ
Please Wait
AKA: "Unrealistic Optimism"
The belief that you are less likely than others to experience negative events and more likely to experience positive ones.
Optimism Bias affects everyone, including (especially) people who think they're immune. The first step to fixing it is understanding how it works.
You underestimate your risk of divorce, disease, or business failure while overestimating chances of success.
This bias is particularly dangerous because it operates below conscious awareness. By the time you notice it, the damage is often done.
This error is driven by Self-enhancement motivation protects self-esteem but distorts risk assessment..
This bias exists because human brains evolved for survival, not accuracy. Self-enhancement motivation protects self-esteem but distorts risk assessment. served our ancestors well. In modern contexts, it often misfires.
In investing: Optimism Bias leads to holding losing positions too long or selling winners too early.
In relationships: This bias causes people to interpret ambiguous signals in ways that confirm existing beliefs about partners.
In work: Optimism Bias makes it harder to update strategies when market conditions change.
In health: People ignore symptoms that contradict their self-image as "healthy" or "young."
Optimism Bias has been studied extensively since the cognitive revolution. Research consistently shows that even warned subjects fall for it—awareness alone doesn't provide immunity.
Use base rates for your reference class. Ask: "What happens to most people in my situation?"
Seek disconfirming evidence: Actively look for data that challenges your current belief.
Use decision journals: Write down predictions before outcomes are known, then review accuracy.
Consult diverse perspectives: People with different backgrounds spot different biases.
Implement decision rules: Pre-commit to criteria before emotionally charged situations arise.
Time-box decisions: Revisit important conclusions after a cooling-off period.
Some brains are more susceptible to this than others. Test your Emotional Health to find out.
The belief that you are less likely than others to experience negative events and more likely to experience positive ones.
The alternate name "Unrealistic Optimism" captures the intuitive essence of the bias. Optimism Bias is the formal psychological term, while "Unrealistic Optimism" describes what it feels like in practice.
Use base rates for your reference class. Ask: "What happens to most people in my situation?"
The underlying mechanism is self-enhancement motivation protects self-esteem but distorts risk assessment.. Human brains evolved heuristics for speed and survival, not accuracy in modern contexts.
Yes. Intelligence doesn't provide immunity—sometimes it makes the bias worse because smart people are better at rationalizing. Awareness and structured decision processes are more protective than raw IQ.
You underestimate your risk of divorce, disease, or business failure while overestimating chances of success.